Costs of Policy Changes under President's Budget

Mar 11, 2010 | Budgets & Projections

CRFB has updated its comparisons of the costs of the President's proposed policies -- outlined in the President's FY 2011 Budget -- incorporating new revenue estimates from JCT (see our original post on the CBO's preliminary analysis of the President's Budget here).

The CBO now estimates that the President's budget proposals would create $9.8 trillion in deficits over the coming decade, compared to OMB's estimate of $8.5 trillion. CRFB will update this table again when the CBO releases its complete analysis of the President's Budget.

OMB and CBO Estimates of 2011-2020 Costs of Provisions in President's FY 2011 Budget (billions)#
 OMBCBO
BEA Baseline Deficit
$5,472$5,984
   
Tax Proposals  
Renew 2001/2003 Tax Cuts for Families Making under $250,000$2,419$2,465
Index AMT to Inflation$659$577
Limit Itemized Deductions-$291-$289
Reform U.S. International Tax System-$122-$122
Impose Financial Crisis Responsibility Fee-$90-$90
Tax Cuts for Families and Individuals$143$154
Tax Cuts for Businesses$93$82
Continue Certain Expiring Provisions$47$63
Close Tax Gap-$49-$22
Loophole Closers and Other Revenue Raisers-$207-$226
Other*$15$25
 Subtotal$2,617$2,617
   
Spending Proposals  
Stimulus*$169$131
Health Care Placeholder*-$150-$150
Modify Pell Grants~$187$197
Medicare Physician Payment Update$371$286
Student Loan Reform-$49-$67
Waste, Fraud, and Abuse-$132N/A@
Discretionary Changes (including placeholder for reduced war spending)^-$693-$152
Other Changes$93$107
 Subtotal-$201$352
   
Debt Service$643$808
Total Deficit Under President's Budget
$8,531$9,761

# Numbers may not add to totals due to rounding.
* Measures reflect net effect of both revenue and spending changes.
~ Cost reflects net policy changes and not the transfer of pell grant funding from mandatory to discretionary outlays.

@ The CBO does not typically estimate potentail program integrity savings.
^ Large variation between CBO and OMB estimates for discretionary and war spending changes reflects different baseline estimates, which create different estimates for discretionary policy changes.